Overconfidence psychology

Overconfidence can be misleading.

 After the 1980s, appropriately named psychologist James Reason wanted to understand the wrong thinking behind car accidents. He took to the streets and parking lots of supermarkets in Manchester, UK, and asked a total of 520 drivers to estimate the number of times they had committed certain offences. For example, did they regularly fail to check their rearview mirror?

Overconfidence psychology

Or had they gotten into the wrong lane when approaching a junction?

In addition to the list of errors and violations, the participants were also asked to estimate how their driving ability compares to that of others, whether it was better or worse than average.
Given a large amount of time many people spend behind the wheel, it is to be expected that most drivers will have at least some awareness of their abilities. However, Reason found that this couldn't have been further from the truth. Of the 520 drivers, only five felt they were worse than average, less than 1%. The rest, even truly abysmal drivers who constantly made mistakes, considered themselves at least as good as the next person, and many thought they were much better. It was, essentially, a massive deception that left them completely blind to their shortcomings.
Three decades later, psychologists have documented similarly misleading confidence levels for many different traits and abilities. We tend to think that we are smarter, more creative, athletic, trustworthy, considerate, honest, and friendly than most people.

 (a phenomenon often referred to as the "better than average effect").

"The evidence is extremely, even unusually strong,"

says Ethan Zell, an associate professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, who recently conducted a meta-analysis of the studies so far. The strength of the effect has made it a favourite in the classroom, he says. 

“It never fails. If you give people a questionnaire where they rate themselves relative to average, almost everyone in the class thinks they are above average in almost everything. "

overconfidence effect example

The consequences can be serious. As Professor Reason had hinted, overconfidence in our abilities on the road can lead to hazardous driving and serious accidents. In medicine, it can lead to fatal diagnostic errors; in law, it can lead to false accusations and judicial errors. And in business, managerial arrogance puts companies more likely to commit fraud and file for bankruptcy.

No wonder, then, that overconfidence is often referred to as the "mother of all prejudices"; Nobel Prize-winning scientist Daniel Kahneman commented that if he had a magic wand that could change something in human psychology, it would eliminate our superiority complex.

Now, fascinating new research by Joey Cheng, assistant professor of psychology at York University, shows that overconfidence can be contagious.

"If you've been exposed to an overconfident person, you're more likely to overestimate your relative position,"

he says. It's a trend that could cause dangerously misleading thinking to spread through a team.